Expected Values - August 25, 2020

Hello and welcome to the first installment of Expected Values, a weekly analysis of booster box values as they rise and fall throughout Wizards of the Coast's Magic: The Gathering release cycles.

Don't forget to support us by shopping at TCGplayer using our [affiliate link](https://www.tcgplayer.com/search/magic/product?productLineName=magic&page=1&utm_campaign=affiliate&utm_medium=mtgboxsim&utm_source=mtgboxsim)!

### But first, a generous gift[!](https://shop.tcgplayer.com/product/productsearch?id=190943&utm_campaign=affiliate&utm_medium=api&utm_source=mtgboxsim)

By popular request, you can now filter the results of your simulation to display only cards worth at least $1, $2, $5, or $10. Additionally, the total value of the simulated box will reflect this filter, giving you even more information to aid you in your decision making process.

#### Step 1: Tap the "Filter" button to the top right of the box summary

![Step 1](/images/blog/2020-08-25_expected-values/1.png "Step 1")

#### Step 2: Pick a filter

![Step 2](/images/blog/2020-08-25_expected-values/2.png "Step 2")

#### Step 3: Yowza!

![Step 3](/images/blog/2020-08-25_expected-values/3.png "Step 3")

You can bet that the urge to [buy a box](https://shop.tcgplayer.com/magic/double-masters/double-masters-booster-box?utm_campaign=affiliate&utm_medium=mtgboxsim&utm_source=mtgboxsim) was strong while this feature was in development.

Future site announcements will have their own blog post, so stay tuned! But for now, onto the show...

## Expected Values

This week we simulated 10,000 draft booster boxes each of **Double Masters** and **Core Set 2021**. That's 20,000 boxes total. Here's what we found.

### Double Masters

#### Draft Booster Box

|               |                    Average  |                       Median  |                            <span style="text-transform: lowercase; font-size: 1rem;">σ</span>  |
|---------------|-----------------------------|-------------------------------|-------------------------------|
|  Total Value  |   $480.82  |   $462.47  |   $113.17  |
|   Cards ≥ $1  |   $424.80  |   $406.69  |   $113.56  |
|   Cards ≥ $2  |   $408.98  |   $390.75  |   $113.98  |
|   Cards ≥ $5  |   $362.57  |   $344.56  |   $114.61  |
|  Cards ≥ $10  |  $311.72  |  $293.66  |  $115.19  |

<div style="display: flex; flex-direction: row; justify-content: flex-end; margin-top: 4px; margin-bottom: 2rem;">
  <span style="padding: 0 1rem; font-size: .8rem;">σ = Standard Deviation</span>
</div>

|                     |          Total Value  |  Link  |
|---------------------|-----------------------|--------|
|  Highest Value Box  |  $1150.98  |  [View box](/set/2xm/draft?c=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)  |
|   Lowest Value Box  |  $228.71  |  [View box](/set/2xm/draft?c=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)  |

#### Takeaways

The data certainly corroborates this Double Masters' reputation of both boom and bust when it comes to draft booster boxes. And while we've seen boxes that don't break even when including both common and uncommon cards, it's hard to discount the less-likely-though-still-statistically-significant number of boxes that were valued well over retail value when *only* counting the cards worth at least $10.

It's important to note that a significant factor in determining whether or not a box reaches or exceeds the "break even" point, however, seems to be the presence of one or more copies of this set's chase cards: **[Force of Will](https://shop.tcgplayer.com/magic/double-masters/force-of-will?xid=pi81b00df5-8d35-4993-8f53-925e979656e6&utm_campaign=affiliate&utm_medium=api&utm_source=mtgboxsim)**, and, to a lesser extent, **[Mana Crypt](https://shop.tcgplayer.com/magic/double-masters/mana-crypt?xid=pi69a261aa-5710-4cdf-985b-618528854a19&utm_campaign=affiliate&utm_medium=api&utm_source=mtgboxsim)**. The presence or absence of these cards also go a long way in explaining the large standard deviation, likely bumping the box into the "win" column if you see one or both.

So how likely are you to pop one or both of those cards? [Simulate one](/set/2xm/draft) and see for yourself!

### Core Set 2021

#### Draft Booster Box

|               |                    Average  |                       Median  |                            <span style="text-transform: lowercase; font-size: 1rem;">σ</span>  |
|---------------|-----------------------------|-------------------------------|-------------------------------|
|  Total Value  |   $133.04  |   $130.61  |   $27.07  |
|   Cards ≥ $1  |   $73.53  |   $71.35  |   $27.62  |
|   Cards ≥ $2  |   $67.80  |   $65.45  |   $27.81  |
|   Cards ≥ $5  |   $58.19  |   $56.03  |   $27.80  |
|  Cards ≥ $10  |  $37.11  |  $34.13  |  $25.91  |

<div style="display: flex; flex-direction: row; justify-content: flex-end; margin-top: 4px; margin-bottom: 2rem;">
  <span style="padding: 0 1rem; font-size: .8rem;">σ = Standard Deviation</span>
</div>

|                     |          Total Value  |  Link  |
|---------------------|-----------------------|--------|
|  Highest Value Box  |  $271.13  |  [View box](/set/m21/draft?c=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)  |
|   Lowest Value Box  |  $67.33  |  [View box](/set/m21/draft?c=MTAsMTDcBDLTBDXTBDcsMTA4LDEwOcYEMcwDMCwxxQjEBDIsMTEzxwQ12wQ4LDExxEg5LMQzygMwLDEyMSwxMsQMM8sENssEOMsExEA5LMRvxwMwxwQxxwQyxwTEHDTLBDfPBDjSBDTVAzDLBDHLBMQcxAQ1zwQ2LDE0N8sExFnHBDXPAzAsMTUyywQzzwQ0LDE1xCjUBDbHBDcsMTXEW9AEOc4ENskDMMcEMccEMscEM9MENdsExEw3LDE2ONcExHU5LDE3xgMyzwQ0LDE3NSwxNzYsMTfEIMQEONoExAMyLDE4NM8ENiwxODfHBDnOBNMDMMsEMSwxOTLLBDPHBDTPBDXXBDbLBDcsMTnEYNIEMsYCMM8DzAQxzwTEL8wEMywyMDQsMjA10wQ2ywQ3zwQ5LDIxMMsEMccEMscEM8cENMsENcsENscEN8cEOCwyMTksMjIsMjIxLDLFCDMsMjI0LDIyNSwyMjYsxA/HAzDHBDHTBMQgyAQ1ywTEQcQEOMoENCwyNDHHBDIsMjQzLDI0NSwyNDcsMjTEH8QEOcoENckDMSwyNTTHBMQQNiwyNTcsMjU4LDI1OSzkAKzHAzDHBDHHBDLLBDTLBDXHBMQ0OMoENzHHBDTKBDgsM8QCMMkDOcYEMc8DMSwzM8UDNcgDNiwzOMUDOcoDNMgCMcUDMsgDMyw0NMUDNSw0NssDN84DOccDNSw1MMsDMdoDMiw1M8UDNssDN8UDOMUDOc0DNjHFAzLFAzPIAzTFAzXFAzbLAzfLAzgsNjksNzEsNzLLAzYsNzfOAzjFAzksOMQCMMgDMcgDM8UDNMUDNc4DNsUDN8QDOTDFAzHIAzIsOTPIAzQsOTUsOTYsOTfFAzjOAznQA2YxNsQEMSxm5AS9ZuQESWbkAz1m5AK+ZjI2LGY0NixmNTEsZjY3LGY4)  |

#### Takeaways

Wow. Where do we start? The conventional wisdom leans heavily in favor of buying singles if the goal is to acquire specific cards, and these results seem to fall in line with that. It comes as no surprise that there is a precipitous drop off in raw dollar value as lower priced cards are filtered out compared to Double Masters, but a lot of it can be explained by the inclusion of high value box toppers in the premium set. On the other hand, if your goal is a fun draft experience, which Core Set 2021 is known to provide, then buying a box makes more sense than buying 3 or 6 packs at a time.

But let's talk about the elephant in the room: the highest value booster box we simulated for Core Set 2021 this week. One thing worth pointing out with regards to that... anomaly... is that it is *extremely* unusual, and many would say that it's downright *impossible*.

The odds of opening a mythic rare card in the rare slot of a Core Set 2021 draft booster pack is about 12.5%, which means one would not be out of line to expect 4 to 5 mythic rares per box, and even more if you're especially lucky with premium foil cards. And that's not even accounting for the odds of opening multiple copies of the same high value cards in a single box. It's always possible to under- or over-perform in that regard, but what we *do* know is that boxes *are not* random in the truest sense of the word.

Wizards of the Coast [prints cards in sheets](https://mtg.gamepedia.com/Print_sheet) and we know that the distribution of cards in each type of sheet is deliberately decided on. What we *don't* know is exactly *how* the distribution of cards, specifically high value cards such as **[Ugin, the Spirit Dragon](https://shop.tcgplayer.com/magic/core-set-2021/ugin-the-spirit-dragon?xid=pi0d85e213-9ef4-4ca3-8f56-90d8e657b41b&utm_campaign=affiliate&utm_medium=api&utm_source=mtgboxsim)** and **[Teferi, Master of Time](https://shop.tcgplayer.com/magic/core-set-2021/teferi-master-of-time?xid=pi96f556c3-67f1-42bb-9641-7f449a178cc6&utm_campaign=affiliate&utm_medium=api&utm_source=mtgboxsim)**, across boxes is determined.

So what does that mean? It means that until we can successfully pull off a [heist](https://media3.giphy.com/media/huPmuUiWCLxLEbo0D4/giphy.mp4) of Wizards of the Coast's card distribution process (and possibly other trade secrets), we can expect a margin of error in each simulation that, when repeated as many times as we did, can produce some very interesting outliers.

So can you beat the odds? [Simulate a box](/set/m21/draft) and see for yourself!

## That's all, folks!

Thanks for joining us for the first installment of Expected Values where we took a look at 20,000 simulated booster boxes. But enough from us. We want to hear from **you**!

**What other kinds of analyses would you like to see?<br/>
And how do you think Commander Legends will perform against other sets?**


Expected Values - August 31, 2020

Hello and welcome to this week's installment of Expected Values, a weekly analysis of booster box values as they rise and fall throughout Wizards of the Coast's Magic: The Gathering release cycles.

Don't forget to support us by shopping at TCGplayer using our [affiliate link](https://www.tcgplayer.com/search/magic/product?productLineName=magic&page=1&utm_campaign=affiliate&utm_medium=mtgboxsim&utm_source=mtgboxsim)!

Spoiler season is always an exciting time for us, and we know it is for you, too. There's so much to stay on top of in addition to these weekly analyses, so from the bottom of our hearts: Thank you for reading.

This week we simulated 10,000 draft booster boxes each of **Double Masters** and **Core Set 2021**. That's 20,000 boxes total. Here's what we found.

### Double Masters

#### Draft Booster Box

|               |                    Average  |                       Median  |                            <span style="text-transform: lowercase; font-size: 1rem;">σ</span>  |
|---------------|-----------------------------|-------------------------------|-------------------------------|
|  Total Value  |   $482.21  |   $465.12  |   $116.33  |
|   Cards ≥ $1  |   $430.10  |   $413.06  |   $116.71  |
|   Cards ≥ $2  |   $411.91  |   $395.24  |   $117.11  |
|   Cards ≥ $5  |   $362.52  |   $345.44  |   $117.85  |
|  Cards ≥ $10  |  $314.33  |  $295.97  |  $118.37  |

<div style="display: flex; flex-direction: row; justify-content: flex-end; margin-top: 4px; margin-bottom: 2rem;">
  <span style="padding: 0 1rem; font-size: .8rem;">σ = Standard Deviation</span>
</div>

|                     |          Total Value  |  Link  |
|---------------------|-----------------------|--------|
|  Highest Value Box  |  $1188.32  |  [View box](/set/2xm/draft?c=MTAxLDEwNCwxMDXHBDYsMTA3LDEwOMoEMSwxzQQ0LDExNscExB85xgQyzAMxzwTEFDXHBDbGBDMsMTPIBDTHBDfLBDgsMTQwLDE0MSwxNDLHBDPLBDTHBDbHBDfGBDXGAzDHBDTLBMQYxCI5LOQAvDYwLDE2MSwxNjPTBMQgxAQ4LDE2xC85LDE3xgM0LDE3NiwxNzgs5AD9xAMwLDE4McsENMcENscEN8sExDA4LDE5MSwxOTQsMTk1LDE5xBDGBDLGAjAxywTEEMQEMywyMDksMjEzLDIxNccENywyMiwyMjQsMjI5xgQzLDIzMMsExBA3LDIzOCwyM8QfOSzELjQyLDI0xAjEBDfHBDksMjUsMjUwxwQxLDI1MiwyNTTLBMQgxAQ2LDI1N88ExD85LDI2MCwyNjEsMjYzLDI2NCwyNjUsMjY3LDLHAzEsMjcyLDI3M8cENSwyN8QYyAQ4LDLTAzDXBDEsMjgyLDI4M8cENCwyODXHBMQ4zwQ5zAMwLDI5MSwyOTTHBDYsMjk3LDPEAjAsMzAyLDMwNCwzMDXTBDYsMzEyxgQyMMcExAzEBDQsMzI1LDMyNywzMjgsMzI5LDMzxgMwLDMzMccEMiwzNDAsMzXIAzYxLDM3LDM4LDQsNDAsNDLFAzMsNDTLAzXFAzbLAzksNTAsNTHFAzIsNTTFAzUsNTnNAzYwLDYxLDY0LDY1LDY2LDY3xQM5ygM3LDcxxQM0LDc4yAM5xwM4MCw4M9EDNCw4Nyw5MMgDMcUDMsUDNcsDNssDOSxm5ARiZjExxQU2LGYxMjPEBTgsZjHECTQwLGYxNcQOOMQKODTEBcQnOcQxxEAyxEAyxDHkAt1m5ALOZuQCxGbkAsFm5AK3yAU2xAXFFMQFNsQ3xgXEMsRfxwUzyQXEMjg4LGYzLGYzMMQFMjksZjM3xgQ0NSxmNDYsZjQ4LGY1MSxmNTIsZjcwLGbEO8QEOTLEBA==)  |
|   Lowest Value Box  |  $183.97  |  [View box](/set/2xm/draft?c=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)  |

#### Takeaways

The verdict? **INTERESTING!** In this week's analysis we see an across-the-board increase in average and median 2XM box values, as well as an increase in standard deviation. Does this mean that it's a better time than ever to buy a box? Well... It depends.

Looking back to last week, the highest value box was valued at $1150.90 while the lowest value box was valued at $228.71. By comparing these results to those, we can see that the highs are higher, but the lows, accordingly, are lower. This makes sense when taking into consideration the increase in standard deviation at all value thresholds. The pendulum appears to be swinging further in both directions.

This can be explained by the increase in value of certain high value cards due to their utility (or to speculation...) while many others normalize into something more stable. So what does this mean? It means that those lucky enough to open chase cards and other powerful cards could see even greater returns than ever before. But it also means that buying singles would be the right decision for others.

So which kind of Magic player are you? [Simulate one](/set/2xm/draft) and see for yourself!

### Core Set 2021

#### Draft Booster Box

|               |                    Average  |                       Median  |                            <span style="text-transform: lowercase; font-size: 1rem;">σ</span>  |
|---------------|-----------------------------|-------------------------------|-------------------------------|
|  Total Value  |   $111.86  |   $110.02  |   $21.84  |
|   Cards ≥ $1  |   $57.43  |   $55.53  |   $22.42  |
|   Cards ≥ $2  |   $52.32  |   $50.41  |   $22.55  |
|   Cards ≥ $5  |   $44.74  |   $42.70  |   $22.50  |
|  Cards ≥ $10  |  $21.11  |  $17.69  |  $19.25  |

<div style="display: flex; flex-direction: row; justify-content: flex-end; margin-top: 4px; margin-bottom: 2rem;">
  <span style="padding: 0 1rem; font-size: .8rem;">σ = Standard Deviation</span>
</div>

|                     |          Total Value  |  Link  |
|---------------------|-----------------------|--------|
|  Highest Value Box  |  $220.77  |  [View box](/set/m21/draft?c=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)  |
|   Lowest Value Box  |  $58.37  |  [View box](/set/m21/draft?c=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)  |

#### Takeaways

The numbers for M21 are a little more in line with what we'd predict. Now that the set can be considered "mature" in the standard lifecycle, the increased supply of long-awaited reprints and powerful new cards have driven values down. In fact, it's a safe bet that you won't find too many cards valued at $10 or more. The caveat here is that it's not necessarily safe say that once down, card values stay down.

Players who buy a box at this point in the set's lifecycle could be optimistic about future demand as reprints of cards like [Grim Tutor](https://shop.tcgplayer.com/magic/core-set-2021/grim-tutor?xid=pic3ced345-7983-4db2-b590-5bbaef8e230a&utm_campaign=affiliate&utm_medium=api&utm_source=mtgboxsim) and [Azusa, Lost but Seeking](https://shop.tcgplayer.com/magic/core-set-2021/azusa-lost-but-seeking?xid=pid47e1c81-49b6-45d2-b7c0-68e9544bf235&utm_campaign=affiliate&utm_medium=api&utm_source=mtgboxsim) are few and far between. But it's also still a fiscally reasonable option for those planning to draft from the set. And, at the end of the day, it's still fun to just crack packs.

But you don't need to take our word for it. [Simulate a box](/set/m21/draft) and see for yourself!

## That's all, folks!

Thanks for joining us for this look at 20,000 simulated booster boxes. But enough from us. We want to hear from **you**!

**What are you predictions for Zendikar Rising? Will the rumored fetchland reprints help it perform better or worse than Core Set 2021?**


Expected Values - September 07, 2020

Hello and welcome to this week's installment of Expected Values, a weekly analysis of booster box values as they rise and fall throughout Wizards of the Coast's Magic: The Gathering release cycles.

Don't forget to support us by shopping at TCGplayer using our [affiliate link](https://www.tcgplayer.com/search/magic/product?productLineName=magic&page=1&utm_campaign=affiliate&utm_medium=mtgboxsim&utm_source=mtgboxsim)!

This week we simulated 10,000 draft booster boxes each of **Double Masters** and **Core Set 2021**. That's 20,000 boxes total. Here's what we found.

### Double Masters

#### Draft Booster Box

|               |                    Average  |                       Median  |                            <span style="text-transform: lowercase; font-size: 1rem;">σ</span>  |
|---------------|-----------------------------|-------------------------------|-------------------------------|
|  Total Value  |   $464.99  |   $450.75  |   $107.53  |
|   Cards ≥ $1  |   $412.18  |   $398.52  |   $107.93  |
|   Cards ≥ $2  |   $394.85  |   $381.06  |   $108.35  |
|   Cards ≥ $5  |   $340.41  |   $325.67  |   $108.95  |
|  Cards ≥ $10  |  $300.36  |  $285.87  |  $109.27  |

<div style="display: flex; flex-direction: row; justify-content: flex-end; margin-top: 4px; margin-bottom: 2rem;">
  <span style="padding: 0 1rem; font-size: .8rem;">σ = Standard Deviation</span>
</div>

|                     |          Total Value  |  Link  |
|---------------------|-----------------------|--------|
|  Highest Value Box  |  $1071.74  |  [View box](/set/2xm/draft?c=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)  |
|   Lowest Value Box  |  $208.38  |  [View box](/set/2xm/draft?c=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)  |

#### Takeaways

Another week, another predictable drop. While last week's analysis showed a small bump in overall values across the board, the overall trend, which is available in our [daily analysis dashboard](/daily), is stabilizing downward. The median line, however, is still above [TCGplayer low pricing](https://shop.tcgplayer.com/magic/double-masters/double-masters-booster-box?utm_campaign=affiliate&utm_medium=mtgboxsim&utm_source=mtgboxsim), even if we're *only* looking at cards valued at at least $5. And while luck is not guaranteed, as evident from the lowest value box, the slow velocity of the drop could be good news for late adopters, given that 50% of boxes are worth more than the $325.67 median.

So are you planning on picking up a box? Why not [simulate one](/set/2xm/draft) before you decide?

### Core Set 2021

#### Draft Booster Box

|               |                    Average  |                       Median  |                            <span style="text-transform: lowercase; font-size: 1rem;">σ</span>  |
|---------------|-----------------------------|-------------------------------|-------------------------------|
|  Total Value  |   $107.84  |   $105.91  |   $21.12  |
|   Cards ≥ $1  |   $56.26  |   $54.28  |   $21.68  |
|   Cards ≥ $2  |   $50.82  |   $48.79  |   $21.85  |
|   Cards ≥ $5  |   $42.38  |   $40.02  |   $21.68  |
|  Cards ≥ $10  |  $23.27  |  $22.63  |  $19.15  |

<div style="display: flex; flex-direction: row; justify-content: flex-end; margin-top: 4px; margin-bottom: 2rem;">
  <span style="padding: 0 1rem; font-size: .8rem;">σ = Standard Deviation</span>
</div>

|                     |          Total Value  |  Link  |
|---------------------|-----------------------|--------|
|  Highest Value Box  |  $229.36  |  [View box](/set/m21/draft?c=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)  |
|   Lowest Value Box  |  $58.93  |  [View box](/set/m21/draft?c=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)  |

#### Takeaways

It should come as no surprise that the overall value of a standard set is steadily trending downward so close to the release of the next standard set. The data has yet to show any signs of stabilization either way, but considering historical examples, we could reasonably guess that the total value of a box won't dip *too* far below the already [discounted prices on TCGplayer](https://shop.tcgplayer.com/magic/core-set-2021/core-set-2021-booster-box?utm_campaign=affiliate&utm_medium=mtgboxsim&utm_source=mtgboxsim), especially given the powerful reprints included in the set.

While we're no strangers to drafting at our LGS, 36 boosters worth of drafts would run us back $720 in person. From that perspective, players prioritizing play over cracking packs might want to consider just [buying a box](https://shop.tcgplayer.com/magic/core-set-2021/core-set-2021-booster-box?utm_campaign=affiliate&utm_medium=mtgboxsim&utm_source=mtgboxsim). But before you decide either way, why not [simulate a box](/set/m21/draft) and see what you can expect?

## That's all, folks!

Thanks for joining us for this look at 20,000 simulated booster boxes. But enough from us. We want to hear from **you**!

**What was your best pull? What decks will you build with them?**


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